American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call | Loss Widens & Brand Resilience | 5/30/2025

Good day and welcome to the AEO Incorporated first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listenon mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. And to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Miss Judy Mi, hidden investor relations and corporate communications. Please go ahead ma'am. Good afternoon everyone. Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Jay Shottenstein, executive chairman and chief executive officer, Jen Foy, president, executive creative director for American Eagle and ARY, and Mike Matias, chief financial officer. Before we begin today's call, I need to remind you that we will make certain forward-looking statements. These statements are based upon information that represents the company's current expectations or beliefs. The results actually realized may differ materially based on risk factors included in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise except as required by law. Also, please note that during this call and in the accompanying press release, certain financial metrics are presented on both a gap and non-GAAP adjusted basis. Reconciliations of adjusted results to the GAP results are available in the tables attached to the earnings release which is posted on our corporate website at www.eo-inc.com in the investor relations section. Here you can also find the first quarter investor presentation. And now I will turn the call over to Jay. Thanks Judy and good afternoon everyone. As described in our preliminary release earlier this month, we were disappointed with our first quarter performance. The margin impact together with the $75 million inventory write down contributed to a $68 million adjusted operating loss for the quarter. At the brand level, American Eagle comps were down 2% and area comps declined 4%. While the broader macro environment and cold spring weather presented challenges, we did not execute to our potential. We had some product misses in our spring and summer floor sets. At area in particular, merchandise came in with higher design and transportation costs and we were not able to realize pricing to support a healthy margin. Altogether, this resulted in higher than expected promotions and the inventory write down we took on spring and summer merchandise. In reviewing the season, our execution needs to be better and the entire team is hard at work to ensure that it is. We have been busy correcting and planning fall 2025 and spring 2026 seasons with all of our learnings top of mind. With the right down behind us, we entered the second quarter with inventory for the season better aligned with recent sale trends. Additionally, we have implemented increased rigor into our buying process, which includes greater cross functional partnership and oversight. We also remain focused on optimizing our operations consistent with our long-term strategic framework. In the first quarter, we accelerated plan actions to further strengthen our supply chain network, which included closing two of our edge fulfillment centers. This was the majority of the $17 million non-GAAP charge in the first quarter and is expected to generate annualized savings of approximately $5 million. We continue to take steps to mitigate the impact of tariffs using all levers at our disposal as it makes sense for our business. Additionally, we are continuing on our strategic path to move business to ensure we are manufacturing with best-in-class partners in countries that make sense for us. Although we continue to face challenges and near-term uncertainties, I believe we are making progress. While annual guidance remains paused until we have greater visibility, I'm confident that we will see improvement as the year progresses. This is further underscored by the meaningful opportunities we see to continue to amplify our brands, two of the most beloved brands in retail in American Eagle and Ary, as well as our active subbrand offline. The team is focused on fueling growth and reach and we remain confident in in the strategic initiatives we have laid out to drive this. Our capital allocation priorities balance investments to support our long-term growth agenda while making sure we return capital to shareholders. On that note, in the first quarter, this included the initiation of a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program as well as $31 million in open market shares repurchases. Additionally, we paid out $22 million in cash dividends in the first quarter. Before I turn the call to Chen, I want to underscore that we are working with urgency to reignite our performance. We expect to be well positioned heading into the important back- to-school season and are confident that results will follow. We've been through challenges in the past and always emerge stronger and that is our goal. We are grateful for the continued commitment and support of our associates and partners as we work to capitalize on the meaningful shareholder value creation and opportunity in front of us. Now I would turn the call over to Jen. Thanks and good afternoon everyone. Clearly this was a tough quarter. We had misses on the merchandising front and a handful of key categories. This was compounded by a cool spring and a slow start to the quarter in February. As the quarter progressed, we saw improvement and met our sales guidance. However, promotional activity was up resulting in lower AURs. We also took an inventory write down altogether driving significant margin pressure. Reviewing our performance by brand. Starting with varying issues were concentrated in soft apparel, particularly in fleece tops and shorts where some of our big fashion ideas for the season simply did not resonate with our customer. We also had higher product costs and we were not able to realize the pricing to get an acceptable margin. We did see areas of strength which we are leaning into as we move through the quarter and the balance of the year. In addition to certain fashion categories, we saw intimates improve sign sequentially as we gained share newness in fabrication and design as well as refresh marketing emphasizing our unique value offering is resonating well offline by air demonstrated positive growth. This continues to be such an exciting opportunity for us. We are gaining market share, expanding customer awareness, and building a community around our truly unique take on active wear. Looking ahead, collections are more cohesive and balanced between basics and fashion items. And terrace aside, product costs are favorable. Despite the near-term challenges, I'm excited as ever about Aryan Offline's long-term growth opportunities. We have a powerful and strong platform we will continue to build upon. Our dedication to our customer is at the center of every decision we make and we are committed to delighting them every day. Let's turn to American Eagle. Although disappointing in total, we saw nice improvement as spring breaks got underway during the marble period. As discussed last quarter, we we experienced out of stocks in some core denim styles which constrained our performance in this quarter. Overall, we saw weakness in shorts and pants. On the positive side, we are pleased to see comp growth in several areas in our women's business. In particular, categories that have been a strategic focus around our social casual dressing initiative. At the same time, we continue to elevate our everyday casual offering. We achieved our best quarter ever in fleece and additionally, we came back in stock in women's denim and then we saw improvement. Although we continue to see pressure in men's, two notable positives were tops in our activeware franchise 247. Looking ahead, I am confident we can build on these wins while addressing the opportunities that came to light over the past few months. Additionally, we have some very exciting campaigns planned for back to school, which we believe will elevate the brand and build greater customer engagement. Before I turn the call over to Mike, I want to reiterate my confidence in the long-term growth potential for American Eagle and Ner. We have powerful brands, strength in our selling channels, and a dedicated customer base that continues to grow with us. We are working with urgency to make the right improvements to realize our full potential. And thank you all. I'll turn the call over to Mike. Thanks, Jen. And good afternoon, everyone. Beginning with our first quarter review. As shared earlier this month, first quarter consolidated revenue of 1.1 billion declined 5% to last year. This included a onepoint headwind from adverse currency and another point from moving our Hong Kong operations to a license model last year. Comparable sales decreased 3%. As Jen said, February is particularly difficult with some improvement in the March April time period. Of note, traffic was up across brands and channels. Compress came through lower AURs and conversion. Gross profit dollars were 322 million and included approximately 75 million in inventory write downs on spring and summer goods. As previously disclosed, the gross margin was 29.6%. Our merchandise margin decreased 960 basis points driven by a 680 basis point impact from inventory writedowns. In addition, higher inseason markdowns, higher product costs, and increased freight as we chased into goods pressured margins, buying occupancy and warehousing expenses deleveraged 140 basis points due largely to rent and delivery in light of the comp decline. SGNA dollars increased 2% as a result of higher advertising where we made investments to support our brands with a partial offset from lower compensation. Appreciation was down year-over-year to 52 million and we recorded an adjusted first quarter operating loss of $68 million. An adjusted loss per share was 29. Consolidated ending inventory cost was down 5% following the write down with units also down 5%. In the first quarter, as Jay noted, we continued to make long-term investments in our business while returning cash to shareholders. First quarter capex totaled $62 million. With the open market buybacks in the accelerated share repurchase program, our share count comes down to approximately 175 million moving forward. And we remain on track to complete the program in the second quarter. We ended the quarter with approximately 88 million in cash and investments and over 620 million of total liquidity including our revolver. Now turning to our outlook. While we have paused for your guidance until we have greater visibility, we wanted to share our expectations for the second quarter as well as some incremental color on the actions we're taken to strengthen performance. Jen and team remain focused on improving product performance with fresh back to school merchandise hitting shelves in July. As mentioned, we've taken actions on inventory, including leaving fall and holiday season buys open to maintain flexibility in our merchandising strategy. As we continue to navigate tariffs, we're implementing various mitigation strategies, including partnering with our sourcing vendors to reduce costs. Additionally, we're further diversifying our supply chain and on track to reduce our sourcing exposure to China to under 10% this year with fall and holiday season down to low single digits. We're pursuing efficiencies across capital spend with fullear capex now expected to be approximately 275 million as we reconent some investments over the coming years. And as noted last quarter, we expect currency pressure to alleviate in the second half as we lap headwinds from last year. Altogether, this positions us to deliver improved growth, profitability, and cash flow as the year progresses. For the second quarter specifically, we expect the top line to trend similar to the first quarter with revenue down 5% and comparable sales down approximately 3%. Operating income is expected to be in the range of 40 to 45 million. We expect gross margin to be down to last year, driven primarily by higher inseason markdowns and boy levers on the comp decline. SGNA dollars are expected to be roughly flat with DNA at approximately 54 million. The tax rate is expected to be approximately 25% and the weighted average share count will be approximately 175 million. Overall, we are committed to reacelerating performance from here and to taking the necessary actions to achieve that goal. We are better positioned entering the second quarter and our teams are laser focused on execution to strengthen our performance. And with that, we'll open up for questions. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. And to withdraw your question, please press star then two. And at this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. And the first question will come from Matthew Boss with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks. Um so Jay maybe larger picture what's your view of the consumer today how do you see this impacting the retail landscape into the back half of the year and maybe across your brands how much of the recent performance do you see as macro driven maybe relative to execution related and how can you best respond all right with the macro macro situation look we're optimistic you know we're hoping that this you know tax plan gets passed sooner than later and and I think that'll give a lot of optimism and and may even stimulate the economy as far as the second half goes as far as the uh as far as the back row uh part as far as the first half I think in the beginning of the year you know it did have a little uh influence on us between people worried about the uh uh about the immigration issue they're worried about the uh about the government cuts they're worried about tariffs I think people are getting more settled down now on it and it's and and it's not as prominent as it was before. Great. And then maybe Mike on on the second quarter operating income, I guess, could you help break down or break apart your embedded assumption for gross margin and just promotional activity needed and the timeline to return to a clean inventory position across brands? Yeah, I can hit the inventory piece first. Um, you know, we've been hard at work really for the start to see this trend in the first half, then with the tariff uh news on April 2nd to really reset plans for the rest of the year, especially in the back half. Uh, the right down obviously to uh get our total inventory right set for this entire first six months, spring and with spring and summer goods. Uh, so our inventory we feel is in a a better place for the back half. Uh, very much in line with sales expectations. Uh we'll talk about we're not providing full guidance but or fully year guidance but we'll talk about that more on the next call. Um and for Q2 specifically yeah we we are still embedding on what is a negative three comp expectation similar to the first quarter at the moment. Uh down five total revenue with some currency and other you know the currency Hong Kong um uh you know point or two headwinds there continuing for the second quarter until we lap both those things starting in the third quarter. um and still embedding some promotional activity uh that we believe we we we will probably need uh you know during the during the um summer season here to get through the inventory and and be clean going into the back to school season. And then on you know with with the down five total revenue pressure on the expenses and gross margin rent and delivery specifically I would expect to see delever on those lines again similar to what we saw in the first quarter. Great. That's the one Thanks. The next question will come from Jay Soul with UBS. Please go ahead. Great. Thank you so much. Um Jen, my question's for you. You just talk about some of the merchandising issues. Do you feel like that maybe there was a little bit of a misread of where the consumer was going or was it perhaps, you know, your identification of trends was good, but maybe competition had the trends a little bit better or sooner than you did? And then secondly, you know, how fast do you think you can get back on the trend where the merchandising is where you want it to be to perhaps drive um stronger comp growth in the back to school and holiday seasons? Thank you. Sure. Yeah, to reiterate, you know, we came off of it a really uh solid Q4. Um we were expecting more as we moved into February and obviously that didn't happen. I will tell you that these teams are working very swiftly to repair what our learnings are and there's always green shoots, right? Um, and we definitely had product issues across brands, but there were there were, uh, product categories that worked. So, um, what the team's been up to since February is, um, repairing and and looking forward ahead. Um, of course, you know, we we needed to lean into, um, moving our inventory, ensuring that we're clean. That is our approach. We want to be clean and mean for back to school. It's our Super Bowl season and that's what we're working on. Um, we have categories like offline. offline's been great. We had solid strength and growth there and um we're leaning into that category when we think about the airy brand. Uh there are misses, but look, we're looking into back to school. I'm proud of what the team's working through. Um we have new members on the team, too, and we have new talent, and I think this team is a winning recipe, um including moving some um tenure teams into new businesses, i.e. direct. Um, so I'm I'm really excited about what's to come, but we have work to do. That's for sure. Got it. Thank you so much. The next question will come from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon everyone. As you think about capital allocation and the capex expenditure, I think came in a little bit. How you thinking about your physical footprint? what's changing in openings and closings versus what you had previously expected. And then if you think about the merchandise assortment going into the back half of the year category wise, Jen, where do you expect to see the biggest improvement and what will take a little bit longer in order to address? Thank you. I'll start with the product. Look, good news is um our seasonal products were tough, right? Shorts across all three brands were tough. Interestingly enough, Denim's been very, very strong for us and giving us nice solid indications as we think about back to school. So, um, it's interesting how we've been able to lean into that category and make sure we're prepared for the back to school season, particularly obviously in AE. I mentioned offline. Offline's been a strong category for us. We're winning in that area and we're going to continue to lean into that category in area. and look intimates. we still have our we we we have shar you know what's interesting as I think about all three brands is we're holding our market share okay and um we're gaining in areas like iie intimates where um that whole share has been down across the industry and we're gaining share so thinking about intimates for airy we're excited about that category undies has been accelerating for us and again we're going to lean into these green shoots that we've been seeing and we're prepared for back to for on capital allocation in capex. Dana, um, yeah, reduced the guidance for the year to $275 million in capex. Um, we're really just recencing projects. I think our initial guidance for the AU remodel program was around 100 locations. We're still going to do about 60 to 70 this year. So, just recadencing them to, you know, preserve a little bit of cash um, in the environment. um in really reaction to our own business, but the tariff impact initially in April, we decided to recadence some capital projects to to preserve some cash um to remodel program recencing air stores. We're still looking about 30 openings and then we also just recent some technology spend as well um on a multi-year basis. And then you know when we prepared remarks, we talked about the dividend the first quarter and the you know ASR being completed here during the second quarter. Um uh and then further further outlook uh we'll provide later in terms of continued plans. Uh we know the remodel program will continue into next year. Uh area openings will provide additional color um as we get further into this year as well. Thank you. Thanks. The next question will come from Marne Shapiro with the retail tracker. Please go ahead. Thanks guys. Um, can we just talk two things? I want to confirm. I think you said denim is still doing well. Um, and you had some sellouts. When you saw the weather break, did you also see denim pick up in denim shorts? And is denim doing well in men's and women's? And then I just have one quick followup on your marketing. Is that going to be weighted towards back to school and any change in the spend there? Sure. Let me just say in general for men's u men's we've seen some acceleration in all categories as we move into Q2. So really good news there. Um shorts has still remained um fairly tough for us um across again all three brands. Um hoping when the weather breaks we're going to see some relief there and um we can then pulse on that. Denim and women's has been strong. Uh once we got back and if you remember back in March um I quoted that we were out of stocks in February. when we got back into stocks, we saw the business and the momentum. Really good news there and all are, you know, it's really interesting in denim and I think I've mentioned this on previous calls. We're seeing all fits work for women's. It's great news for us. We have a stronghold in women's denim and we've gained share. So, that's the good news. Um, and again, I want to reiterate our customer file. our customer file in AE has grown high single digits and ARY um through this tough challenging time has grown mid single digits. So we know we have work to do on the product. There were definitely some misses and airy um late goods to the floor. Um I never liked how that shows up by the way. Um when you're hearing good never I hate it. it ends up looking like what we all we know how that looks and um and I know the teams we you know we go to we we see what our misses and um again starting in February we've been reacting so we're uh back to school campaigns start um in July and move through the season fantastic and just the marketing will that be weighted towards back to school is that the when we should start to see the new campaigns and changing any spending yes absolutely had a new floor set recently, an area's new floor set this week. So again, um we want to continue to bring in the newness that's so important for our customer, but um our our real marketing campaigns, you'll see more through July through the um you know, back to school season. Honestly, the new floor set that just went in is stunning and such a big change from what's been there. So, congrats on that because it honestly looks fantastic. Yeah, thank you. I like I said, starting in February, we we started to move fast. So that's what we need to do. Thank you guys. You next question will come from Rick Patel with Raymond James. Please go ahead. Uh thank you. Good afternoon. Um hoping you could talk about the outlook for promotions. So you touched on growth improving as the year progresses. What does that embed in terms of promotions? Like just bigger picture. How are you evaluating the potential to improve conversion with promotions versus protecting gross margins? Yeah, Rick. I think uh the outlook for the rest of this quarter, like I talked about um still assuming a little pressure on markdowns through promotions to get ourselves completely clean going into this back to school season as Jen talked about. Um in the back half, we're still embedding a little more uh expectation around promotions into our gross margin expectations, but again, we haven't really guided the full year and we'll provide more color on that in the third quarter. I will say and we definitely looked at our you know we diagnosed our assortments and where we might have had opportunity in units and opening price points um and the teams have been up to remixing starting in back to school and even the near end as I just spoke about. Can you also unpack your outlook for SGNA? So it grew 2% in Q1 uh two Q's plan flat. Just curious what you're pulling back on and and how you're approaching the back half given uh expectations for better growth. Curious if you lean into that improvement or if you keep spending pretty tight here. Yeah, I I'll actually give a little color on the fourear SGNA. So yes, we're uh assuming around or we're estimating or projecting about flatna in the second quarter and that's true for the year too. As of right now, I'd expect SGAA to be relatively flat on the year. But where we're leaning into is customerf facing spend to you know the earlier question advertising will be up um on the year uh we have some exciting things coming for the kind of back to school season Jen will elaborate on later so we are uh there's some incremental spend in the third quarter um so all other STNA is down on the year including compensation lines advertising is where we are increasing spend uh and that's resulting in roughly a flattish outlook for the Thanks very much. The next question will come from Jona Kim with TD Cowan. Please go ahead. Thank you for taking my question. Could just one more color on how the digital form versus stores during the quarter and what you're seeing quarter to date there and as you think about sort of mitigating the tariff impact, how are you thinking about the pricing strategy as you flow through the goods at a higher price? Thank you very much. Uh we definitely saw an uptick on the digital channel and we leaned in there during the quarter. Um I will say it was a very interesting quarter. You know uh the traffic was very tumultuous whether it was going to stores or digital. Um it it was we navigated to the best of our ability and we leaned into the digital channel for sure and we saw a nice uptick on the AE side particularly. Um so again we're going to continue to take those learnings and move forward. I think I missed your latter half of the promotional question. Um, you phased out. So, yeah, just um just as you think about tariffs and mitigating that impact, um, how are you sort of using pricing as a as a lever there? How are you sort of balancing promotions and raising pricing um, in the current environment? Yeah. Um as Jay mentioned in his um uh you know earlier we definitely saw some impact of air and cost of goods particularly in air. So when we looked forward um and we again took our learnings we're making sure that our cost of goods is in line including the tariffs and I have to give a call out to the teams we were well in front of the tariffs. We worked hard to make sure we were mitigating this risk um between production merchandising planning. They did an outstanding job and we feel like we're very well positioned for back to school and ready to compete. Thank you. The next question will come from Chris Nardone with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Pardon me, Mr. Nardone. Your line is open. Are you on mute? Oh, maybe I'm mute. We're going to move on. Our next question will come from Alex Stratton with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Perfect. Thanks so much. maybe just on on on guidance, maybe what would give you confidence there to to reinstate it and and and what are really the the KPIs for the second quarter that you're watching to to ensure that you're making progress from some of the the first quarter missteps. Thanks so much. Yeah, on guidance as we said um with you know the first quarter results definitely some uncertainty still on the impact of CARIS for the rest of the year focusing on getting ourselves right set into this back to school season um I'd imagine as we get to the second quarter call um we'll definitely be fighting third quarter color and if we have a better sense of uh narrowing down that impact on comparison to our gross margin we get back to a full year number to include a fourth quarter expectation too but we'll we'll uh you know talk about that on the second quarter call in a few months. Uh as far as metrics go, I think you know there are things that we saw in the first quarter um where you know traffic traffic was still relatively healthy in general. Customer counts still very healthy. Um you know was you know AUR and conversion were the drivers of the negative comp. So those are definitely metrics we've got our eyes on here dayto-day between both channels. uh you know Jen and teams uh looking at the results every day across those metrics to to see if there's adjustments that could be made promotionally either in you know cross stores and digital uh so I'd say those are the metrics you know based on the driver of the negative comp that we saw in the first quarter we have our eyes on those very closely great thank you the next question will come from Chris Nordone with Bank of America please go ahead hi guys um do you hear me now? Yes. Yes. All right. Sorry about that. So, first, can you just help clarify how both brands are trending uh so far the this quarter relative to the 2Q comp of down three? I might have missed it. I don't think we said it, so I don't think you missed it, but they're um very similar. Um down a down two in the first quarter, a down four. Right now, they're trending very similar to that um total guidance. Okay. And then just on margins really quick, I think you alluded to product costs becoming the tailwind. Um can you just elaborate and help quantify anything around this and how we should think about phasing in the tariff impact if it's really going to be more of a 3Q onward event or if you'll see some impact in the second quarter. Yeah, I think we talked about product costs being favorable pre any tariff impact. Um and then the tariffs we've got the mitigated uh impact to this year couple million dollars in the second quarter but the full year number is around $40 million Chris again a couple million dollars in the second quarter that's embedded in our current guidance the rest of it uh you could spread between Q3 Q4 understood thanks and our final question will come from Simon Seagull. with Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Hey, good afternoon. This is Dan Aris and thanks for taking our question. Anything you could share in terms of how you're planning inventory for the remainder of the year and maybe what you're planning open to buy for the back half versus historical levels. Thanks. Uh yeah, as I said earlier, we're planning inventory commensurate with our sales expectations. Um made a lot of adjustments through this first few months of of the year to right side things for the rest of the year. feel very good about how we're positioned as of right now going into the back half and we do have uh about 30% of that open at the moment uh with calls coming over these next several months as we get into you know the around the June July into August period. So, we'll be making very uh well, very um detailed and uh you know um decisive and decisive conversations together on placing those buys as we see the trend continue over these next several months. But that flexibility is key. Yeah, thanks very much. Thank you. Thank I think there's no one else left in Q. So, that concludes our call for today. Thanks everyone for your participation. Thank you. Thanks everyone. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.