Nvidia Corp (NVDA)
On March 1, 2020, I made predictions about the future of tech giant Nvidia and its stock performance by March 2025. Now that we are past that five-year mark, let’s evaluate how accurate those predictions were.
Overall Assessment
I would rate my predictions a solid B or B+. I was largely correct regarding Nvidia's business trajectory and its stock price. I confidently predicted that Nvidia stock would outperform the market over the next five years.
Stock Performance
From March 1, 2020, to March 1, 2025, Nvidia's stock delivered a staggering total return of 1,760%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's return of 118%. This means a $1,000 investment in Nvidia would have grown to an impressive $18,600. As of June 4, 2025, although slightly lower than the five-year mark, the stock remains a strong performer.
Driving Forces Behind Growth
The remarkable demand for Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) and the technology that supports artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities have been the main drivers of this performance.
Prediction 1: Jensen Huang at the Helm
Status: Correct. Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO, remains in charge, continuing to steer the company towards innovation and growth in AI.
Prediction 2: Dominance in Gaming GPUs
Status: Correct. Nvidia has not only maintained but expanded its market share in the discrete GPU space, rising from 68.9% in Q4 2019 to an impressive 82% in Q4 2024.
Prediction 3: Growth in the Gaming Market
Status: Correct. The global gaming market has seen solid growth, with Nvidia's gaming revenue doubling from $5.52 billion in FY 2020 to $11.35 billion in FY 2025.
Prediction 4: AI Training Standard
Status: Correct. Nvidia’s GPUs continue to be the gold standard for AI training, securing a 92% market share in data center GPUs by 2024.
Prediction 5: Autonomous Vehicles
Status: Too optimistic. While I anticipated that fully autonomous vehicles would be close to legal status by 2025, it appears this timeline may not be met.
Prediction 6: The X Factor
Status: Correct. Nvidia has introduced several groundbreaking technologies, including the Omniverse platform, which has gained widespread adoption across various industries.
Final Thoughts
While predicting stock prices is inherently uncertain, my predictions have largely held true. I remain optimistic about Nvidia's future, especially as its growth is far from over.
Investment Considerations
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